tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:/posts Gerd Leonhard's Megashifts 2021-12-28T11:36:07Z tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1776428 2021-12-28T11:36:07Z 2021-12-28T11:36:07Z Megashifts Keynote Gerd Leonhard

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1776427 2021-12-28T11:35:11Z 2021-12-28T11:35:11Z The Megashifts and the Game Changers

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1568986 2020-07-04T21:09:15Z 2020-07-04T21:09:15Z The Long, Unhappy History of Working From Home
“I kind of learned who was really doing the work and who was not really doing as much work as it looked like on paper that they might have been doing,” he said. With “some of the supervisory, middle-management people,” he added, “I’m starting to wonder if I really need them.””

The Long, Unhappy History of Working From Home
via Instapaper
tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1445689 2019-08-17T11:24:02Z 2020-05-30T20:57:14Z Some Megashifts images (Futurist Gerd Leonhard)

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1359386 2019-01-02T03:38:48Z 2019-01-02T03:38:48Z A Conversation with Rudy Rucker
“one of Wolfram's points has been that any natural process can embody universal computation. Once you have universal computation, it seems like in principle, you might be able to get intelligent behavior emerging even if it's not programmed. So then, it's not clear that there's some bright line that separates human intelligence from the rest of the intelligence. I think when we say "artificial intelligence," what we're getting at is the idea that it would be something that we could bring into being, either by designing or probably more likely by evolving it in a laboratory setting.”

Episode 76: A Conversation with Rudy Rucker
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tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1336524 2018-10-27T12:45:49Z 2018-11-14T12:40:46Z Get the free PDF with the complete 3rd Chapter of Futurist Gerd Leonhard’s highly-praised Technology vs Humanity book: The Megashifts

Read the original post on my blog

There has been so much demand on the topic of this chapter – the 10 MEGASHIFTS that will define the next 10 years – that we decided to release it as a single PDF; you can now download it below. 

Please note that the PDF is for your personal use only, and subject to copyright for all subsequent uses.


If you enjoy the free chapter please consider buying the entire book – it is now available in 8+ languages (and more are coming soon).  Read the latest reviews here.

If you want to return the favour you can also write a nice review on amazon or @goodreads – both would be great !

FREE Gerd-Leonhard-Futurist-Technology vs Humanity Chapter-3-The-Megashifts. 10MB PDF

Chapter 3

The Megashifts

Technological shifts are rewiring society and transforming the landscape.

I believe the coming clash between man and machine will be intensified and exponentalized through the combinatorial effects of ten great shifts—Megashifts, if you will, namely:

1. Digitization
2. Mobilization
3. Screenification
4. Disintermediation5. Transformation6. Intelligization
7. Automation
8. Virtualization
9. Anticipation

10. Robotization

As a paradigm change is to thinking and philosophy, so a Megashift represents a huge evolutionary step for society, one that may seem gradual at first . . . but then has a very sudden impact. Below I explore the nature of these Megashifts and then go on to describe each of them and their potential implications.

Exponential and simultaneous

Many of the world’s great innovations were born decades, sometimes centuries, before they eventually swept through human society. They often occurred in a relatively sequential manner, each following and building on the previous ones. In contrast, Megashifts might grow slowly as well but many were born together. They have now started sweeping through society simultaneously and at a much faster pace.

Megashifts present immediate and complex challenges and differ in nature to the forces that have swept through society and business in the past. A key difference here is that a relatively few organizations and individuals that anticipate and find ways of exploiting or addressing a Megashift can normally expect to find opportunities and reap the biggest benefits. You may be familiar with these terms already, but now I want you to imagine them as distinct technological forces combining to create a perfect storm for humanity. Technostress? The challenges we have experienced so far won’t even register on the stress scale when compared with what’s to come…

Megashift 1: Digitization

Everything that can be digitized, will be. The first wave included music, then movies and TV, then books and newspapers. Now it is impacting money, banking, insurance, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, transportation, cars, and cities. Soon it will have transformational impact in logistics, shipping, manufacturing, food, and energy. It is important to note that when something gets digitized and moved to the cloud, it often becomes free or at least vastly cheaper. Consider what happened with Spotify: In Europe an individual 12-song CD used to cost around €20 (US$22)—and now you can get 16 million songs for €8 (US$9) per month, or listen to them free on YouTube.

While I am a happy and faithful Spotify subscriber and enjoy it very much, this kind of margin-destroying Digital Darwinism brings a huge shift in business models and forces most incumbents to transform or perish. In my 2005 book The Future of Music (Berklee Press), I discussed at length what seems to me a certainty—that the big record labels that controlled the music industry for decades will cease to exist because distributing music is no longer a viable business. Indeed, Sir Paul McCartney has famously compared incumbent record labels to dinosaurs wondering what happened after the asteroid. While that is an accurate image of the “psychic whiplash” being experienced by the established rulers of this once lucrative kingdom, it gives no indication of the speed of extinction. Crocodiles survived and some dinosaurs evolved into chickens—but digital Megashifts pay little homage to history and take no prisoners.

In 2010, I coined the phrase “the people formerly known as consumers”; for them, digitization often means cheaper goods and widely improved availability. That’s generally a positive, but then again, cheaper goods can also mean fewer jobs and lower wages. Witness the digitization of mobility with Uber and its rivals around the world like Lyft, Gett, and Ola Cabs in India. We can now order a taxi ride using an app on our smartphone, and it will often be cheaper than the incumbent competition. But will this economy work for the taxi drivers in the long term, or are we heading into a Darwinian “gig economy,” a situation where we all work a multitude of relatively poorly paid freelance gigs rather than regular jobs?

Regardless of societal challenges, the rapid digitization, automation, and virtualization of our world are probably inevitable. In practice, the rate may sometimes be constrained by fundamental laws of physics such as the hereto unmet energy needs of supercomputers or the minimum viable size of a computer chip—often cited as the reason why Moore’s Law will not prevail forever. This assumption of continued and pervasive penetration of technology points towards a future where what cannot be digitized and/or automated (see Automating Society, chapter 4) could become extremely valuable. As discussed in chapter 2, these androrithms capture essential human qualities such as emotions, compassion, ethics, happiness, and creativity.

While algorithms, software, and artificial intelligence (AI) will increasingly “eat the world” (as venture capitalist Marc Andreessen likes to say), we must place the same value on androrithms—those things which make us uniquely human…

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1293297 2018-06-12T13:21:31Z 2018-10-25T07:53:29Z Megashifts illustrations

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1293296 2018-06-12T13:19:40Z 2018-06-12T13:19:41Z The Megashifts and AI....watch this video

and read chapter 3 in my book www.techvshuman.com 

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1252297 2018-02-24T15:08:03Z 2018-02-24T15:08:03Z A Megashift is what happens when trends become tidal waves

Quote from my book 

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1244187 2018-02-07T23:15:54Z 2021-11-17T03:47:19Z Megashifts 2018 gif

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1244180 2018-02-07T23:11:40Z 2018-02-07T23:11:41Z The latest megashift gifs!

  creative commons attribution licensed

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1182342 2017-08-10T09:46:15Z 2017-08-10T09:46:16Z The megashifts: Gerd Leonhard explains

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1168232 2017-06-27T20:29:20Z 2017-06-27T20:29:20Z The Megashifts explained (distilled from Gerd Leonhard's book Technology vs Humanity) Megashifts  Gerd Leonhard Technology vs Humanity

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1158157 2017-05-28T11:45:14Z 2017-05-28T11:45:14Z What are the megashifts ?

Digital transformation has become a ‘suitcase word’ (i.e. you can throw anything into this kind of meme) that really stands for many other major developments in technology and culture that have erupted in the past 5 years. The megashifts will change our world more in the next 20 years than the previous 300 years, and understanding them well today is certain to make all the difference, tomorrow. These 10 megashifts are the key to success in the future: digitization, mobilisation, datafication (everything is becoming data), cognification (everything is becoming intelligent), personalisation (every user can be individually addressed now), augmentation (we can see the world with new eyes, AR / VR),  virtualisation (what used to be ‘stuff’ is now zeros and ones), automation (what people used to do is now done by machines and software), disintermediation (old middlemen fade and new platforms take over), robotization (robots are going to be everywhere)...

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1156952 2017-05-24T10:48:42Z 2018-03-27T22:32:30Z a new animation! ]]> tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1142760 2017-03-31T02:09:18Z 2017-03-31T02:09:37Z Some new Megashifts slides and images

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1136846 2017-03-08T12:41:24Z 2017-03-08T12:41:24Z Brand new video: Futurist Gerd explains the MegaShifts

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1126826 2017-01-28T14:15:15Z 2017-01-28T14:15:15Z The Megashifts (visualisation)

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1125505 2017-01-24T06:15:56Z 2017-01-24T06:15:57Z The Coming Tech Backlash – NewCo Shift
“50% of the jobs will be gone in ~20 years. Not from the great sucking sound of jobs to Mexico that can be stopped with a wall. Not from moving offshore to China. From automation that is moving quickly from blue collar manufacturing to white collar information work. Second only to climate change, this is the greatest disruption of our time, and I don’t mean that word in a good way.

A recent study found 50% of occupations today will be gone by 2020, and a 2013 Oxford study forecasted that 47% of jobs will be automated by 2034. A Ball State study found that only 13% of manufacturing job losses were due to trade, the rest from automation. A McKinsey study suggests 45% of knowledge work activity can be automated.

94% of the new job creation since 2005 is in the gig economy. These aren’t stable jobs with benefits on a career path. And if you are driving for Uber, your employer’s plan is to automate your job. Amazon has 270k employees, but most are soon-t0-be-automated ops and fulfillment. Facebook has 15k employees and a 330B market cap, and Snapchat in August had double their market cap per employee, at $48M per employee. The economic impact of Tech was raising productivity, but productivity and wages have been stagnant in recent years.”

The Coming Tech Backlash – NewCo Shift
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tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1121924 2017-01-10T08:02:28Z 2018-01-15T17:55:00Z Megashifts: technology and humanity (Gerd Leonhard slide deck from IAPP)

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1121923 2017-01-10T08:00:25Z 2018-01-15T17:54:59Z The next 120 years: Megashifts explained (slidedeck)

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1119002 2016-12-29T11:57:07Z 2016-12-29T12:08:25Z Some megashifts illustrations (from the book "Technology vs Humanity")

Visit www.techvshuman.com for more details about my book

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1118583 2016-12-27T16:53:53Z 2016-12-27T20:05:46Z The Megashifts GIF

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1117181 2016-12-21T11:38:53Z 2016-12-21T11:38:54Z Conversations with Gerd (context of megashifts)


tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1115899 2016-12-16T05:34:15Z 2016-12-16T05:38:08Z Our Automated Future
“Foxconn, the world’s largest contract-electronics company, which has become famous for its city-size factories and grim working conditions, plans to automate a third of its positions out of existence by 2020"

Our Automated Future
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tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1109010 2016-11-18T05:58:37Z 2016-11-18T08:55:35Z A gallery of Megashifts Megashifts  Gerd Leonhard Technology vs Humanity ?]]> tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1103351 2016-10-29T10:44:49Z 2016-10-29T10:44:49Z The Future Show LIVE: Understand the Megashifts!

tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1103350 2016-10-29T10:44:01Z 2016-10-29T10:44:01Z The Megashifts reshaping our world

The Megashifts reshaping our world
(via Instapaper)

Science fiction is increasingly becoming science fact and exponential technological changes are rapidly changing our culture, business and society.

By /

The most powerful companies are no longer the oil and gas companies or the banks – they are the big data / big Internet companies and platforms, such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, Baidu and Tencent.

These players are propelled to supremely dominant positions by what Gerd Leonhard, Futurist and Author of Technology vs. Humanity calls Megashifts; a dozen or so drivers that are unfolding exponentially as well as combinatorially – amplifying each other and reaching unprecedented magnitudes.

Any organization looking to understand exponential thinking and to achieve future-readiness must have a clear picture of what these shifts mean, and what opportunities or threats may arise from them.

Leonhard describes Megashifts as much more than mere paradigm shifts, which usually affect only one sphere of human activity. They arrive suddenly to transform the basis and framework of entire industries and societies. Megashifts do not replace the status quo with a new normal – they unleash dynamic forces which reshape life as we know it. Megashifts radically reconfigure the age-old relationship between our past, present and future. (See Megashifts.com).

Here are some Megashifts that Leonhard, in his book Technology vs. Humanity expects us to see in the next few years:

Digitisation: everything that can will become digital. Digitization means much lower costs for consumers yet also a mad scramble for new business models because distribution or access is no longer an issue.

Mobilisation: everything is becoming mobile, and soon wearable or ‘hearable’. Computing is becoming invisible, omnipresent – utterly indispensable.

Screenification: everything that used to be physical (or printed) is now available on screens; what used to be between people (such as conversations in foreign languages) can soon be done via a screen using free translation apps such as SayHi, Google Translate, or soon, Waverly Labs’ Pilot prototype.

Disintermediation: middlemen are suffering because technology increasingly makes it feasible to go direct. Examples include record labels (musicians now launch their careers via YouTube), and consumer banking where millennials increasingly use mobile platforms and apps to make payments and organize their finances.

Datafication: much of what used to happen face to face is now being turned into data, e.g. electronic medical records vs. talking to the doctor, or the grocery delivery service that tracks all its products.

Intelligisation or Cognification (as Kevin Kelly terms it): everything that used to be dumb is now becoming connected and intelligent, such as gas pipelines, farms, cars, shipping containers, traffic lights etc. This flood of data we will have a vastly different way of reading, seeing and directing the world.

Automation: the result of smart machines will be widespread technological unemployment. Everything that can be automated will be. I believe this is a huge opportunity but we are currently ill-prepared for it.

Virtualization: we no longer rely only on physical things in a room but on an instance in the cloud, e.g. software defined networking instead of local routers, virtual friends such as Hello Barbie etc.

Augmentation: humans can increasingly use technology to augment themselves. Examples include my smart watch, Augmented and Virtual Reality, Intelligent Digital Assistants and (sooner or later) Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) and implants.

Anticipation: software (IA/AI) can now anticipate and predict our behavior; thus changing the way maps, email and online collaboration work.

Robotisation: even many white-collar jobs will soon be done by robots. Robots are entering our daily lives and homes.

De-humanisation: taking humans out of the equation by cutting a complex human task to its bare bones and giving it to machines.

Yet, for Leonhard, the most important Megashift might soon be Re-humanization: finally, we are just about to realize that our customers don’t buy technology – they buy relationships? Maybe this is the driving force behind the recent Partnership on AI to benefit people and society, initiated by FAMIG (Facebook/Amazon/Microsoft/IBM/Google).

Technology is not what we seek, it’s how we seek – and we should embrace technology but not become it.


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tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1096519 2016-10-06T18:13:34Z 2016-10-06T18:13:34Z Facebook and Google: most powerful and secretive empires we've ever known
“They have become the medium through which we experience and understand the world.”

Mediasation !

Facebook and Google: most powerful and secretive empires we've ever known
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tag:www.megashifts.com,2013:Post/1093224 2016-09-25T12:46:33Z 2016-09-25T12:46:33Z What exactly is a Megashift?

Megashift: an exponential shift in human experience which is sudden in arrival, and unpredictable in outcome. Unlike paradigm shifts which affect one area alone and may take many decades to take hold (the combustion engine, color film etc), Megashifts are omnipresent, combinatory and immediately dominant. Megashifts interact with each other to alter human perceptions of time and space, creating a conscious divide between past and future. Where paradigm shifts represent a new way of doing things, Megashifts represent new ways of being. Mobile, wearable and ingestible technologies are all examples of Megashift moments.  More on Gerd's blog.